Imports
Imports of recent and frozen sheep meat (product weight) within the first quarter of 2024 have grown from 2023. 2023 import ranges had been low at 10,800 tonnes, compared to the five-year common (2018-22) which sat at 17,000 tonnes. Imports from New Zealand and Australia stay the important thing buying and selling nations for sheep meat.
We’ve seen progress from New Zealand all year long up to now, totalling 10,500 tonnes, the bulk being frozen sheep legs. There was giant 12 months on 12 months progress in imports from New Zealand, as the primary quarter of 2023 imports had been impacted by components together with Cyclone Gabrielle which restricted its manufacturing capability. Australian volumes have seen a lift from 2023, albeit from a low stage, to complete 3,500 tonnes within the first quarter of 2024.
These volumes imported all through the primary quarter of the 12 months are considered a few of the highest we’ll witness all through 2024. Demand for lamb at Easter mixed with decrease home manufacturing meant increased than anticipated volumes had been imported to fulfil orders. Equally, current international sheep worth disparities have probably made the UK and EU extra engaging markets within the brief time period.
Transferring additional into the 12 months, we count on to see a discount in import volumes over the summer season and autumn as our home new season lamb crops comes ahead. Equally, a current downturn in New Zealand manufacturing could affect the volumes of imports from a provide perspective, with the standard slaughter season ending in September. Imports from Australia have remained comparatively steady, as product volumes stay focussed on the USA, China, and the Center East by Q1 2024.
We’re predicting a 12% improve in imports for the entire of 2024 in comparison with the earlier 12 months. That is as a result of beforehand talked about increased imports from Jan – March, which has shifted the yearly complete. We predict imports to stay elevated 12 months on 12 months within the second quarter of 2024. For the ultimate two quarters of 2024, we predict a much less drastic rise in imports in comparison with 2023. This may appear like a extra steady however relative improve in imports throughout the remainder of the 12 months.
UK recent and frozen sheep meat imports by provider (YTD Jan-Mar)
Supply: HMRC by way of Commerce Knowledge Monitor LLC
Exports
UK exports of recent and frozen sheep meat (product weight) within the first quarter of 2024 totalled 20,400 tonnes, a fall of 800 tonnes from 2023. Decrease home manufacturing and elevated shopper demand by this era might account for our decline in export capability. The EU stays our largest market, accounting for 95% of our sheep meat exports in 2024, totalling 19,400 tonnes.
Transferring additional into 2024, we count on our exports to the EU to be supported by declining EU manufacturing, predicted to be down by practically 5% in response to the European Fee.
Nonetheless, the decline in our home manufacturing will restrict our export potential for the rest of 2024. We predict a fall within the area of 5% in our export volumes for the entire of 2024 in comparison with 2023.
UK recent and frozen sheep meat exports by vacation spot (YTD Jan-Mar)
Supply: HMRC by way of Commerce Knowledge Monitor LLC
